The Maldives Meteorological Service in Malé reported on Tuesday, 14 October, that El Niño strengthened further in September 2026 and that sea surface temperatures around the Maldives reached their highest levels of the year.
According to the service's El Niño Information Bulletin, the Niño-3.4 index rose to +2.1°C in September, indicating a strong event. Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Climate models cited by the service indicate that El Niño is likely to peak around December 2026. The World Meteorological Organization has said the episode may rank among the strongest on record and is likely to contribute to above-average global temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and a higher risk of droughts and floods in many regions.
In the Maldives, positive sea surface temperature anomalies became more widespread from June and were strongest in September. Most areas recorded anomalies of more than 1.0°C above normal, and some regions exceeded 2.0°C. Maximum air temperatures at most weather stations stayed above the usual range from January to September, with the largest anomaly of nearly 2.0°C at Hanimaadhoo in July.
The Meteorological Service warned that warmer seas may increase stress on coral reef ecosystems and could disrupt ocean currents with effects on the fisheries industry. Reduced rainfall in some areas could also affect agriculture. Warmer conditions raise the risk of heat stress for vulnerable people. Rainfall from January to September varied widely across atolls, with both above-normal totals and significant shortfalls recorded at different stations.
The Meteorological Service and the National Disaster Management Authority urged the public and relevant authorities to stay prepared for localised heavy rain and flooding, and to monitor dry conditions where rainfall has been below normal. The service advised people to remain alert to weather conditions in the coming months. No coral bleaching event or fishery closure has been declared solely on the basis of this bulletin.