As of 28 October 2026, a strong El Niño is under way in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to peak around December, according to the Maldives Meteorological Service (Met Office). The Maldives has already been warmer than normal this year, with sea temperatures more than 1°C above average across most of the country in September. That raises the risk of coral bleaching and heat stress, and a Met Office meteorologist has said above-normal temperatures are expected in the first four months of 2027.
What is El Niño and why does it matter for the Maldives?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific becomes unusually warm for months at a time. It shifts winds and rainfall worldwide and tends to push global temperatures up. Scientists track it with the Niño-3.4 index, which measures how far sea temperatures in a strip of the central Pacific are above or below normal.
The Maldives lies thousands of kilometres from the Pacific, but El Niño still reaches it through warmer seas, hotter days and changes in rainfall. In its August El Niño update, the Met Office named marine heatwaves that threaten coral reefs as a key risk. It also listed shifts in tuna grounds, higher power demand for cooling and disruption to farming.
Latest forecast: a December peak and a hotter start to 2027
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in place in its 8 October diagnostic discussion. It said the Niño-3.4 index reached +2.1°C in September. It put the chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 at more than 83%. It gave an 83% chance of a record-strength event in October–December, in data going back to 1950.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on 8 October that El Niño would keep intensifying ahead of a forecast peak in December. It said there was a near-100% likelihood the event would last through February 2027. "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.
The Met Office's El Niño bulletin of 14 October used the same +2.1°C figure. It said El Niño is expected to peak around December and could become one of the strongest on record. In its outlook for October to December, issued on 17 October, it said above-normal rainfall and above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely across the country.
Met Office meteorologist Hussain Waheed said in a television interview on 22 October that the peak is expected around the change between the southwest and northeast monsoons. He said above-normal temperatures are expected from January to April 2027, and that the Met Office is preparing heat forecasts and alerts.
Sea temperatures and coral bleaching risk
The Met Office said sea surface temperatures around the Maldives were above normal from June to September, and the warming grew stronger each month. In September, most areas were more than 1°C above normal and some were more than 2°C above normal, as we reported when Maldives seas warmed by more than 1°C. Daytime highs were also above normal at most weather stations; Hanimaadhoo was nearly 2°C above normal in July.
NOAA's Coral Reef Watch monitoring for the Maldives showed the country at its "Bleaching Watch" level on 26 October. That means seas are warmer than their usual maximum, but heat stress has not yet built up. The station briefly reached "Bleaching Warning" in April and May this year. Maldivian waters are usually warmest in April, so reef heat stress tends to peak between April and June.
The Met Office says warmer-than-normal seas may increase stress on coral reefs, and it recommends regular monitoring. The risk adds to longer-term pressures, including the IUCN warning on reef collapse by 2075, on the Maldives' protected reefs and the rest of the country's reefs.
Rain, drought and drinking water on the islands
El Niño does not simply mean less rain in the Maldives. The Met Office said rainfall from January to September varied widely across the country. Kaadehdhoo was about 155 mm short of normal in January and Hanimaadhoo about 173 mm short in July, while Gan had about 287 mm more rain than normal in September.
The near-term risk has been heavy rain. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) reported flooding in Malé on 21 October and damage on some northern islands on 23 October. The Met Office has issued yellow alerts for torrential rain and other weather alerts this month. The Met Office has advised authorities to prepare for local heavy rain and flooding while also watching for dry spells in areas with rainfall deficits.
The NDMA has said it is taking steps to reduce El Niño's impact, including preparing for possible drought. The northeast monsoon from January to March is the Maldives' dry season, so islands that rely on stored rainwater would be most exposed if early 2027 turns out both hot and dry.
What El Niño means for fishing
The Met Office said in August that El Niño changes winds and ocean currents, which affects where skipjack and yellowfin tuna gather and lowers the catch for each fishing trip. Warmer surface water also reduces the upwelling of nutrient-rich water that plankton and fish depend on, it said. Skipjack catches have historically fallen significantly in El Niño years, it said. The Met Office has not published a forecast for this season's catch.
Travelling to the Maldives during El Niño
December to April remains the drier, calmer part of the year. The Met Office describes January to March as the dry season, with December and April as transition months. March and April are normally the hottest months. With above-normal temperatures expected, travellers should plan for heat: drink plenty of water, use shade and reef-safe sun protection, and take extra care with children and older relatives. The Met Office has warned that warmer conditions raise the risk of heat stress for vulnerable groups.
Snorkelling and diving go on as normal. Bleaching, if it comes, usually shows after weeks of heat stress, so ask your resort or dive centre about current reef conditions. For visas, transfers and taxes, see our Maldives travel guide.
How past El Niños hit the Maldives
The strong El Niño events of 1997–98 and 2015–16 both brought severe reef heat stress to the Maldives. In NOAA Coral Reef Watch data, accumulated heat stress around the Maldives reached about 8.8 degree heating weeks in June 1998 and about 10.9 in May 2016. Both are well above this year's peak of about 3.2. A 2016 survey led by the Maldives' Marine Research Centre and Environmental Protection Agency with the IUCN found that about 60% of the coral colonies it assessed in North Ari Atoll had bleached, and up to 90% at some sites.
Frequently asked questions
Is El Niño happening now?
Yes. NOAA has had an El Niño Advisory in place, and on 8 October it said the Niño-3.4 index reached +2.1°C in September, which is a strong event.
When will El Niño peak, and how long will it last?
The Met Office and WMO expect a peak around December 2026. WMO says the event is almost certain to last through February 2027, and NOAA expects a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January–March 2027.
Will the Maldives be hotter in early 2027?
Probably. The Met Office forecasts above-normal temperatures for October–December 2026, and a Met Office meteorologist said above-normal temperatures are expected from January to April 2027.
Will the reefs bleach?
It is not certain. NOAA put the Maldives at "Bleaching Watch" on 26 October. Bleaching risk is highest if heat builds up during the hottest months, usually April and May.
Does El Niño mean less rain and water shortages?
Not necessarily. Rainfall has been uneven this year, and the Met Office expects above-normal rain from October to December. The NDMA says it is preparing for possible drought.
Is it safe to travel to the Maldives during El Niño?
Yes. No travel restrictions have been issued. Expect hotter-than-usual days, follow Met Office alerts and check reef conditions locally.
This explainer will be updated as the Maldives Meteorological Service issues new forecasts.